AI to impact 40% of jobs worldwide in near future, says IMF

Artificial Intelligence will impact almost 40 per cent of jobs in the global workforce across blue and white collar jobs, as well as advanced and emerging economies, the International Monetary Fund in a report has said.

The report, published on Sunday, said that nearly 40 per cent of jobs globally are exposed to AI, with advanced economies facing a higher risk but also having better opportunities to benefit from AI than emerging markets.

In advanced economies, around 60 per cent of jobs are exposed to AI, mostly in tasks requiring cognitive skills. Of these, approximately half may be negatively affected, while the rest could benefit from increased productivity through AI integration. The exposure is 40 per cent in emerging markets and 26 per cent in low-income countries.

AI is anticipated to influence income and wealth inequality, with risks extending to higher-wage earners, the report said.

The report said that according to its models higher-wage earners could experience a disproportionate increase in their income, contributing to rising inequality.

IMF Managing Director Kristalina Georgieva said that AI's impact on highly skilled jobs poses greater risks for advanced economies, even a complete vanishing of such jobs.

Georgieva, in a blogpost accompanying the IMF research, said, "Roughly half the exposed jobs may benefit from AI integration, enhancing productivity. For the other half, AI applications may execute key tasks currently performed by humans, which could lower labour demand, leading to lower wages and reduced hiring. In the most extreme cases, some of these jobs may disappear."

The report noted that in the UK, where there are a significant number of graduates, workers might be more prepared to transition from jobs facing displacement to those labelled as "high complementarity."

However, older workers in the UK could encounter challenges in adapting to and transitioning to new roles or undergoing retraining.

Last year, the Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD) reported that occupations at the highest risk of AI-driven automation, accounting for about 27 per cent of employment across its 38 member countries (including the UK, Japan, Germany, the US, Australia, and Canada), were highly skilled jobs. Professions such as law, medicine, and finance were identified as particularly vulnerable to the impact of AI.