Blockchain start-up Ripple's CEO Brad Garlinghouse has forecast a surge in the cryptocurrency market, anticipating its total market capitalisation to surpass $5 trillion this year.
He attributed this surge to several macro factors including the impending launch of the first US spot bitcoin exchange-traded funds (ETFs) and the anticipated bitcoin "halving."
"I’ve been around this industry for a long time, and I’ve seen these trends come and go," Garlinghouse told CNBC. "I’m very optimistic. I think the macro trends, the big picture things like the ETFs, they’re driving for the first time real institutional money."
He added, "You’re seeing that drives demand, and at the same time demand is increasing, supply is decreasing." He further said, "That doesn’t take an economics major to tell you what happens when supply contracts and demand expands."
On January 10, the US Securities and Exchange Commission approved the first US spot bitcoin ETFs, now tradable on US stock exchanges. These ETFs offer both institutional and retail investors a way to invest in bitcoin without needing to directly own the cryptocurrency.
The bitcoin halving, occurring approximately every four years, halves the reward for bitcoin miners who validate transactions and create new coins. The last halving occurred in 2020, and the next one is expected to occur later this month.
"The overall market cap of the crypto industry ... is easily predicted to double by the end of this year ... [as it’s] impacted by all of these macro factors," Garlinghouse said.
Garlinghouse believes that another factor propelling the crypto market to greater heights is the potential for favourable regulatory developments in the United States.
This being an election year, there's optimism among crypto enthusiasts that the next administration will adopt a more crypto-friendly stance in its policies.
However, the current SEC (Securities and Exchange Commission), led by Chair Gary Gensler, has taken a tough stance on crypto firms, including Ripple.
Ripple has been embroiled in a lawsuit brought by the SEC, accusing it of unlawfully selling XRP, a cryptocurrency Ripple is closely associated with, through unregistered securities offerings. Despite the allegations, Ripple denies any wrongdoing and is actively contesting the lawsuit.
"One of the things actually I’ll say on the macro tailwinds for the industry: I think we will get more clarity in the United States," Garlinghouse said.
"The US is still the largest economy in the world, and it’s unfortunately been one of the more hostile crypto markets. And I think that’s going to start to change, also," he added.
As of April 4, the total cryptocurrency market capitalisation stood at around $2.6 trillion. Doubling this figure would mean reaching a new market cap of $5.2 trillion.
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